A window of opportunity for arms control in 2008–2009

PRESS RELEASE

The next 12 months promise the beginnings of the first serious discussions of arms control and disarmament in more than a decade, according to Dr Bates Gill, Director of (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), speaking at the launch of SIPRI Yearbook 2008.

As shown in the new edition of the SIPRI Yearbook:

1. Armed conflicts are far more complex and intractable than is often thought and the traditional classification of conflicts is breaking down.
2. Military spending, arms production and international arms transfers are all on the rise: a) world military spending totalled $1339 billion in 2007, a real-terms increase of 6% since 2006;b)arms sales by the 100 largest arms-producing companies in 2006 increased by 8% in nominal terms over 2005;c)international transfers of major conventional weapons were 7% higher over the period 2003–2007 than in 2002–2006.
3. While 8 states possess almost 10 200 operational nuclear weapons, many arms control and non-proliferation agreements are faltering or making little progress.
4. Efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction—nuclear, biological or chemical —are increasingly focused on individuals and non-state groups, rather than states.

In response to these challenges, there is growing urgency around the globe to bring new life and a mainstream momentum to arms control. There are new leaders in the UN, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, the UK and, from January 2009, the USA—who will find it politically possible to take concrete action on the arms control and disarmament front. Encouraging technological developments allow greater certainty in the monitoring and verification of arms control agreements.

‘The movement to reinvigorate arms control efforts must stake common ground across the political divides of right and left, “doves” and “hawks”, nationalists and internationalists, hope and fear,’ said Gill. A global consensus on arms control and disarmament must include both nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states and be supported by think tanks and other non-governmental organizations.

‘Voices from across the political spectrum are coming to recognize again the value of arms control in the face of looming threats to humankind,’ said Gill, ‘Although we face tremendous obstacles, a new window of opportunity is opening to realize constructive progress on arms control and disarmament. It is clearly in the interest of citizens and governments alike to take pragmatic and positive steps in the right direction.’

Major armed conflicts, 2007

In 2007, 14 major armed conflicts were active in 13 locations around the world.

Africa
Somalia

Americas
Colombia
Peru
USA

Asia
Afghanistan
India (Kashmir)
Myanmar (Karen State)
Philippines
Philippines (Mindanao)
Sri Lanka (‘Tamil Eelam’)

Europe
Russia (Chechnya)

Middle East
Iraq
Israel (Palestinian territories)
Turkey (Kurdistan)

Over the past decade the global number of active major armed conflicts has declined over all, but the decline has been very uneven, with major drops in 2002 and 2004 and an increase in 2005. Three of the major armed conflicts in 2007 were not active in 2006 (i.e. had not started or had fewer than 25 battle related deaths): Peru, the Philippines (Mindanao) and Somalia. Three conflicts in 2006 were no longer active in 2007: Burundi, Sudan and Uganda.

Four of the 14 major armed conflicts that were active in 2007 increased in intensity compared to 2006: Sri Lanka (Tamil Eelam), Afghanistan, Myanmar (Karen State) and Turkey (Kurdistan). In the latter three, battle-related deaths increased by more than 50 per cent.

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2008, SUMMARY

http://yearbook2008.sipri.org/